On Friday, Donald Trump announced that Vladimir Putin had agreed to supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, 500,000 more in November and one million “immediately thereafter”; within hours, the Treasury authorised the sale and import of Russian diesel through 7 April 2027. The motive is hardly mysterious. The national average stood at $6.23 a gallon, just below September’s record of $6.52, and diesel prices have risen by 70% since the conflict with Iran began, with the midterms barely three weeks away. Whether Moscow can actually deliver is another matter; former US officials doubt Putin even has the volumes Trump cited.
Kyiv’s response was bitter. Zelensky called the deal a gift to Putin and warned that Russia would repay the diesel with further terror, describing it as “a weak decision of strong partners.” Europe’s reply came through policy rather than rhetoric: UK and EU sanctions remain fully in force. In effect, Washington has broken ranks with the coalition it once led, repeating the March oil waiver that Merz flatly called “wrong.”
Rather than absorb the criticism, Trump has spent weeks turning it back on Zelensky. He claimed that the diesel spike was caused by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, not by his war with Iran, and in a leaked call he reportedly pressed “diesel, diesel… diesel” on his Ukrainian counterpart. This revives the familiar insinuation that Kyiv needs a more pliable leader. The causality, however, is inverted. The original shock is the war of choice that began with the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran; Ukrainian strikes amplify it, and the President blames the amplifier.
Meanwhile, the Middle Eastern front is mutating. The Houthis struck Riyadh’s King Khalid airport three times in one week, as well as Abha, killing three people, and they warned that all Saudi oil facilities are now targets. They also claimed strikes on Aramco facilities at Yanbu, the very Red Sea terminal Riyadh relies upon to bypass Hormuz. Thus, Trump’s boast of “TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz” looks rather hollow.
On the same Friday, Oslo honoured Navi Pillay, a former ICC appeals judge. Trump said the committee had “demeaned” the prize, and Rubio sanctioned the court as an institution, cutting it off from US-based financial services and technology companies. This put Washington on a diplomatic collision course with European allies, who are now weighing the EU blocking statute to shield court staff.
The pattern is unmistakable: on energy, on Ukraine and on international law, Washington and Europe now stand on opposite sides. If pump prices fall before 3 November, Trump will claim vindication; if they do not, he will have traded allied trust for nothing. In either case, Europe has learnt that, under this White House, alliances are priced by the gallon.
