On Easter Sunday, April 5, at 1:03pm, President Trump posted the following message on social media: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President Donald J. Trump.”

Iran responded by warning that threats to commit war crimes would do nothing to help the American cause. It said that if civilian targets were attacked, its response against countries across the region would be even stronger than before. Tehran also made clear that the Strait would not return to normal while the war continued.

Pakistan says the two sides are still exchanging messages, perhaps in the hope of opening some path to mediation. Even so, the rhetoric is plainly hardening, pointing towards further escalation rather than de-escalation. Trump is threatening “hell on earth” if Iran does not reopen the Strait, while once again pushing back his own deadline, this time from April 6 to April 7. Yet Iran shows no sign of retreating. As we have argued before, why should it offer him an off-ramp at this stage?

The US has successfully carried out what it described as a search-and-rescue mission to recover the second pilot who ejected from the F-15 shot down by Iran last week. But the operation appears to have come at a cost, with at least two C-130 aircraft and one helicopter lost in the process. Iranian officials are now casting doubt on whether the mission was really about rescuing the pilot at all.

They argue that the pilot was recovered near Isfahan, close to the nuclear site where Iran’s enriched uranium is believed to have been stored or buried after the June 2025 bombing campaign. That has prompted speculation that the real objective may have been the seizure of Iran’s uranium stockpile. The scale of the operation, involving at least three C-130s as well as other aircraft and drones, suggests a mission larger than a straightforward rescue. If uranium was in fact recovered, it would give Trump one of the few outcomes he could plausibly present as a victory and use to justify stepping back from the conflict.

Even so, the wider situation remains extremely tense. Israel has reportedly killed the new head of Iranian intelligence and says it will continue targeting figures throughout the chain of command. Iran, meanwhile, appears to have found ways to restore launch platforms damaged in the raids. By using excavators, it can reportedly dig out artillery positions struck by bombs and return them to service within hours, provided the damage is not too severe. That may explain why at least half of Iran’s offensive capacity appears still to be intact, despite US and Israeli claims that it had been destroyed.

What is now clear is that the war in the Middle East has reached a decisive moment. The next few days will show which way it turns.