Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s high-risk decision to call a snap election has paid off spectacularly. The result is a decisive victory that reshapes Japan’s political landscape and hands her one of the strongest mandates seen in years.

Despite heavy snowfall depressing turnout to 28.18 percent, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a landslide, with projections of 274 to 328 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives, up from 198 before the election. Together with coalition partner Japan Innovation Party, the ruling bloc is on track for at least 310 seats, delivering a two-thirds supermajority that allows it to override the upper house where it lacks control. This is the LDP’s best performance since 2017 under Shinzo Abe, and a dramatic reversal after corruption-tainted setbacks in 2024 and 2025 left the party clinging to a narrow majority.

Takaichi, who became Japan’s first female prime minister in October 2025, had pledged to resign only if her coalition lost its majority. Instead, calling an election just four months into her tenure strengthened her hand. The contrast with the opposition is stark. The newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), created weeks before polling day through a merger of the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, suffered a crushing defeat. Its expected seat count collapsed from 167–172 to between 37 and 91, potentially more than halving its representation. The scale of the loss may force co-leader Yoshihiko Noda to step aside, after a merger intended to arrest Japan’s rightward drift instead backfired.

Smaller parties largely held their ground. Ishin is projected to maintain roughly 28–38 seats; the Democratic Party for the People remains broadly stable at 18–35; and the far-right Sanseito is set to expand from two seats to between five and 14, short of its ambitions but still a notable gain.

Agenda and risks ahead. Takaichi campaigned on an ambitious economic programme reminiscent of Abe’s playbook: a temporary cut of the consumption tax on food to zero, costing about ¥5 trillion; a $135 billion stimulus already in motion; and a record $783 billion budget proposal for fiscal 2026. She insists fiscal sustainability remains a priority and has ruled out a major cabinet reshuffle. On foreign policy, she has signalled a more assertive posture toward China and Taiwan, comments that have already provoked diplomatic retaliation from Beijing.

The election consolidates power around Japan’s first female prime minister and clears the path for bold moves on stimulus, tax relief, and security. Markets, however, remain wary: critics warn of fiscal overreach and the risk of a destabilising loss of confidence. Whether Takaichi can ease inflation while preserving credibility will determine not just the success of her programme, but the market’s verdict on her premiership.