A few days ago, Iranian drones struck an Iranian commercial cargo vessel in the Caspian Sea, which according to Kyiv was transporting weapons to Russia. Iran promised retaliation (even if only a symbolic gesture), but an intense diplomatic effort by the EU and Ukraine averted this potential escalation. This was the first explicit signal of a potential conjoining of the two major ongoing conflicts, Russia- Ukraine and US/Israel-Iran. Signs that this was already happening have emerged previously, however.

Let’s recap. In the asymmetric war between Russia and Ukraine, Kyiv managed to regain ground in spite of having a much smaller population and territory than Russia, thanks to the developments of high-tech, low-cost drones. Russia asked for support from its ally Iran, which has one of the most advanced drone technologies at the global level for the same reason; namely, that because they cannot develop a large nuclear arsenal, they specialised in high-tech and low-cost weapon systems. Iran has been providing drones to Russia since at least 2023, as the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) has shown.

IISS studies have shown that drones built in Tehran would be transported to the Iranian port of Amirabad on the Caspian Sea, then moved by cargo ships (likely disguised as commercial vessels) to the Russian port of Makhachkala, also on the Caspian. From there, they would be transported to the strategic facilities of Primorko-Akhtarsk and Seshcha, in Russia, and then deployed over Ukrainian territory. Because of these Russian attacks on Ukraine with Iran-made drones, Kyiv has developed the most advanced technology to counter these Persian drones that exist at the global level.

When the war in Iran erupted in February 2026, Iran retaliated by sending its drones against all the Arab countries in the region. Most of them, including the largest of all —Saudi Arabia — have since signed deals with Ukraine to be supplied with their anti-(Iran-made) drone technologies.

Other similar signs emerged a few years ago, when Ukraine provided support to African troops trying to resist the coups orchestrated by Russia-linked Wagner Group in the Sahel, which have overthrown the fragile French-inspired and EU-supported democracies in favour of Moscow-backed military dictatorships. Ukraine wanted to break the link that Russia had in the region, as it did when it provided support to Al Jolani, in his successful attempt to conquer Damascus and overthrow the Moscow-supported Assad regime in Syria.

In fact, in this global chess game, Russia has always tried to play on different tables, and to use this leverage not to be cornered in any of them. “Do you want to punish me for what I did in Ukraine?” – Putin may say – “But who can credibly convince the Iranians not to build a bomb?” Ukraine has tried to turn this strategic advantage into a liability. This was the message that Zelensky delivered to Trump on his latest visit to Washington: Iran has helped Russia in the war against Ukraine; now Russia is helping Iran in the war against the US and Israel. The best way of stopping both wars is to hit Russia and Iran together. So the attack of Ukrainian drones on an Iranian ship seemed to be the perfect seal to this deal.

Both wars have already seen other international ramifications: Russia has asked North Korea to provide troops, and provided intelligence to Iran. China has provided intelligence, and now weapons to Iran. Zelensky has tried to depict a picture in which a new “Axis of Evil” is emerging, composed of China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea at its core.

The risk is that these regional conflicts start merging into a single, global conflict involving all the world’s major super-powers. This would represent the validation of the prophecy that Pope Francis made a few years ago, when asked about the risk of WW3 starting soon. He replied by saying that WW3 had already started, but it was fought “in pieces” (piecemeal). The real risk now is that these pieces start merging into one another, creating a global conflict, which you can call WW3.