The Ambrosetti (TEHA) event in Villa d’Este delivered, once again, lots of theatre and some policy substance. The 2026 gathering produced one of the most anticipated confrontations in the event’s history when senator-for-life Mario Monti clashed with Futuro Nazionale’s Roberto Vannacci; this exchange attracted as much attention as the panels on energy, military, or industrial policy.

It was on the second day that the Monti-Vannacci exchange eclipsed everything else. Vannacci argued for a fundamentally reconceived Europe — “more than ReArm Europe, we need ReBorn Europe” — while rejecting the premise that every state seeks deeper integration. Monti’s response was unusually blunt for a figure of his institutional bearing: he charged that Futuro Nazionale’s programme violates the Constitution, the EU’s fundamental rights charter, and gender equality provisions, concluding that though ageing, he would fight “with his last ounce of energy” against what he called a reconstruction of fascist rhetoric.

The Forum staged, once again, the usual parade of government ministers and opposition leaders. An instant poll conducted by Teha Ambrosetti found 68.3% of attendees rating the Meloni government positively. This is not, however, evidence of policy consensus so much as a diagnosis of a room self-selected for establishment sympathies; Cernobbio has never been an electoral focus group, and treating it as one would be a category error. What the numbers do reveal is a governing coalition that has succeeded, at minimum, in outperforming expectations among Italy’s industrial and financial elite — a constituency whose approval matters disproportionately for investment sentiment, whatever its irrelevance to the ballot box.

Some 83% of the audience also took a negative view of the opposition’s performance. But all the leaders of the centre-left camp were present (with Conte connected remotely). PD’s Elly Schlein presented a proposal to deploy €14 billion in EU fiscal flexibility toward energy transition — heat-pump conversions, public housing efficiency, and related measures, a technocratic pitch aimed squarely at Cernobbio’s own register. Matteo Renzi warned Meloni over rising poverty, while Giuseppe Conte challenged the trajectory of military spending; four leaders, four distinct critiques, no shared narrative — precisely the fragmentation that has kept the centre-left and the Five Star Movement from posing a credible alternative since 2022.

The implication for the general election in 2027 (with a yet-to-be-determined date) is twofold. First, Vannacci’s willingness to absorb a direct fascism accusation from a figure of Monti’s stature, without visible retreat, confirms his positioning as the political spectrum’s most combative right flank — useful for mobilisation, but potentially unable to stay in the centre-right coalition without causing its collapse or paralysis. If Meloni does not find a way of managing him, she risks losing the next election. On the other side, the opposition needs to iron out its remaining differences and work on a joint programme that would project a sense of unity.

The race for the next general election is wide open, with the reform of the electoral law, on which Meloni is working, potentially becoming the decisive factor.