The 62nd Munich Security Conference, held from 13 to 15 February 2026, took place at a moment of profound uncertainty for the international system. Under the stark theme “Under Destruction,” more than 60 heads of state and government gathered to confront an increasingly fragile rules-based order and a visibly strained transatlantic relationship. Much of the conference can be understood through two lenses: the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, released in December 2025, and the contrasting keynote speeches delivered in Munich by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

As discussed in earlier columns, the new US National Security Strategy marked a sharp break with post-Cold War orthodoxy. It reoriented American foreign policy decisively toward the Western Hemisphere through what amounts to a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, while reframing China primarily as an economic rival rather than a systemic ideological threat. Crucially for Europe, the strategy signalled a realignment of US military focus away from the continent, intensifying European anxieties and accelerating calls for strategic autonomy, including Franco-German discussions on a European nuclear deterrent.

More controversially, the strategy openly endorsed efforts to “cultivate resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations” and expressed optimism about the rise of “patriotic European parties.” This language effectively divided Europe between governments aligned with Washington’s worldview and those seen as contributors to Western decline. That ideological fault line loomed large over Munich.

Chancellor Merz’s opening address offered a stark assessment of the moment. The post-1945 international order, he argued, “no longer exists.” The world has entered a new era of great-power politics, and Europe must face an “inconvenient truth”: a widening rift has emerged between Europe and the United States. Merz explicitly referenced Vice President JD Vance’s confrontational speech at the 2025 Munich conference as a turning point in that relationship. Yet Merz stopped short of outright rupture. While critical of elements of the Trump administration’s approach, he warned that the United States is not “powerful enough to go it alone” in an era of renewed geopolitical competition. He called on both sides to repair and rebuild transatlantic trust, stressing that NATO remains a mutually beneficial alliance. At the same time, he was unequivocal that Europe must develop a self-sustaining pillar within NATO, revealing that talks with President Emmanuel Macron on a European nuclear capability were already underway.

Merz also drew clear normative distinctions. In Germany, he noted, freedom of speech ends where human dignity is threatened. Europe, he added, remains committed to free trade, climate cooperation, and multilateral institutions such as the World Health Organization, implicit rebukes to Washington’s recent policy choices.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio followed with a notably more conciliatory address on Saturday morning. In contrast to Vance’s reception a year earlier, Rubio’s speech was met with a standing ovation. He emphasised that the United States and Europe “belong together” and underscored the historic transatlantic partnership that had “saved the world” in earlier crises.

Still, Rubio did not dispute the broader diagnosis. Speaking ahead of his departure, he echoed Merz’s conclusion that “the old world is gone.” The emerging geopolitical landscape, he argued, demands that all nations reassess their roles and responsibilities. Global institutions, in his words, must be “reformed” and “rebuilt,” reflecting the Trump administration’s more transactional and conditional approach to international cooperation.

The Munich conference ultimately laid bare a central paradox. Transatlantic tensions are real, structural, and unlikely to dissipate. Yet both Europe and the United States recognise that disengagement is not an option. In a world defined by fragmentation, rivalry, and competing visions of order, continued engagement may be strained, but it remains indispensable.