Last week, the first draft of the so-called “peace plan” elaborated by Steve Witkoff (the US special envoy to the Middle East) and Kirill Dmitriev (the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund) was sent to Ukraine, along with an ultimatum to President Zelensky to sign the plan by Thursday 27^th November.

This proposed peace plan aims at providing a comprehensive framework for resolving the Ukraine–Russia conflict and establishing future security arrangements in Europe. Ukraine’s sovereignty would be affirmed, and a broad non-aggression pact would be signed by Russia, Ukraine and Europe, settling disputes from the past three decades. Russia would pledge not to invade neighbouring nations, while NATO would halt its eastward expansion. Structured dialogue between Russia and NATO, mediated by the US, would aim to resolve security concerns and foster economic cooperation. Ukraine would receive security guarantees, but would have to      limit its armed forces to 600,000 soldiers, constitutionalise its non-alignment with NATO, and accept that NATO will not deploy troops on Ukrainian soil.

Ukraine would be eligible for EU membership and benefit from preferential market access to European markets, while a substantial international package would support Ukraine’s reconstruction. This includes a dedicated development fund, joint US–Ukrainian projects on infrastructure and gas, and World Bank financing. Russia, in turn, would be gradually reintegrated into the global economy, potentially rejoining the G8, and entering long-term      economic partnerships with the US.

Frozen Russian assets would be used for Ukrainian redevelopment and joint ventures, aiming to deter future conflict. Territorial arrangements would recognise Russian control over Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, freeze lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and create demilitarised zones, with both countries agreeing not to alter borders by force.

The agreement would be legally binding, under the supervision of an international Peace Council, which would be chaired by Trump. Animmediate ceasefire would begin upon mutual consent to the plan. Elections in Ukraine would follow within 100 days, and amnesty would be granted to all parties for wartime actions.

Ukrainian and European leaders consider this plan to be a first draft that needs to be highly amended to be acceptable, rather than look like a simple capitulation to Russian requests. An article by The Guardian highlighted how the plan seems to be a mere translation of a Russian plan, with some of the most outrageous requests being included as conditions.

For example, Ukraine should cede the entire territory of Donbass, even the areas not conquered by Russia. It should reduce its army to 600,000 soldiers, down from 900,000 currently. Total amnesty would be guaranteed to every party involved, and Russia would even be re-admitted to the G8. Meanwhile the security guarantees given to Ukraine remain vague.

Further talks will take place in coming days between European leaders and the US, to try and amends those parts of the plan that could be considered acceptable by the two sides. We are probably closer to a potential peace agreement than we have been over the last three years, but there is definitely still lots to be agreed upon in order for this “peace plan” to become binding for both sides.