Over the past three weeks, US operations targeting Venezuela have drawn significant international scrutiny. The escalation includes increased US military involvement, officially aimed at combatting narcotics trafficking, as well as      a renewed surge in political tensionsbetween the two countries. Many observers believe these moves could soon pave the way for regime change in Venezuela.

The roots of the current crisis trace back to Donald Trump’s first term as president, when his administration offered robust support to opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who declared himself interim president in 2019. Trump’s recognition of Guaidó, alongside calls for the removal of Nicolás Maduro and the imposition of sanctions, sought to pressure the Venezuelan government. While the US coordinated with allies to bolster Guaidó’s legitimacy—offering humanitarian aid and facilitating diplomatic efforts—this approach proved highly divisive both within Venezuela and globally. Some saw it as a defence of democracy; others criticised it as undue interference in Venezuelan sovereignty. Ultimately, Guaidó’s challenge to Maduro faltered, and with Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House, US policy shifted and that episode ended (source).

With Trump’s return to office, efforts to orchestrate regime change in Caracas have resurfaced. The current context is shaped by a US “retrenchment” within North America, stretching from the Panama Canal to Canada and Greenland. Outside this zone, US interests in Latin America largely centre on Venezuela for two reasons. First, Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves on the planet, and having some control of them – even if indirectly – via a sympathetic leader could prove important at a time in which the US is detaching itself from the Middle East. Controlling or influencing oil production could prove essential to put a cap on inflation in coming years. Second, the abysmal economic and social conditions of Venezuela have led to a massive emigration towards the US, which, together with persistent inflation,  had damned Biden’s chances of a re-election.

Between Trump’s terms, Nicolás Maduro organised a controversial referendum seeking to annex the oil-rich Essequibo region from French Guiana, further destabilising the area. He also declared victory in elections widely viewed as fraudulent, with opposition leader Corinna Machado barred from running. This too has heightened tensions in the region.

In a surprising twist, Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and dedicated it to Trump, citing Trump’s role in raising international awareness of Venezuela’s plight. Her gesture ignited debate: supporters viewed it as a call for constructive global involvement, while critics questioned the appropriateness of honouring such a polarising figure. Many in Venezuela, however, saw the award as recognition of grassroots peace efforts amid political turmoil.

Recently, the US has intensified anti-narcotics operations in the Caribbean, including in Venezuelan waters, aiming to disrupt drug trafficking networks. The launch of “Southern Spear”, a joint multinational initiative, focuses on intelligence sharing and maritime security. Early reports indicate several arrests and drug seizures have occurred, though the operation’s broader impact remains uncertain. The UK, deeming the operation illegal, has suspended intelligence sharing with the US in the region. The deployment of the USS Ford aircraft carrier near Venezuela has further heightened tensions, with local governments divided over the increased security presence and the risks of escalation.

Many analysts view these actions as preparatory steps towards regime change in Caracas. Trump has publicly advocated for Maduro’s removal, citing governance and human rights concerns. Venezuelan officials have condemned what they perceive as external interference, while international voices urge restraint and respect for sovereignty. In our view, Maduro’s days are numbered. The pressure that the US can put on his regime is immense, and in this period in which “might is right” prevails over international law, if the US wants to obtain Maduro’s head, it is more likely than not to eventually succeed. The question is what happens after that, as there doesn’t seem to be a coherent strategy for the aftermath.