On 15-17 March, presidential elections were held in Russia. As we have discussed on numerous occasions, the Russian elections were one of the three key elections taking place in 2024 in Emerging Markets. As discussed in previous columns, elections need to be closely watched even in electoral autocracies such as Russia, because they may reveal important insights regarding the state of the autocracy itself.
For example, in our column of 19 February we said that the following four elements deserved close scrutiny: (a) the turnout: on this occasion it was 77.5%, almost 10% higher than in 2018. This is a very high percentage by any standard, and certainly it was “incentivised” by the Kremlin; (b) the number of contenders: after the killing of the real opponent Aleksej Navalny, and the disqualification of the anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin, the only other candidate was Nikolay Kharitonov, from the Communist party, who gathered a meagre 4.4% of votes.
Also, (c) the actual result: Vladimir Putin collected an astonishing 88.5% of votes, which again is very elevated by any standards. The use of the electronic vote for the first time in a presidential election must also have contributed to the result, as it adds a layer of opacity; finally, (d) the regularity of the electoral process: This is where we know for sure that this election was rigged: there were widespread and clearly visible reports of all sorts of irregularities, from armed guards entering voting booths with electors inside, to packs of pre-voted ballots clearly visible at the bottom of the transparent ballot boxes.
What have we learnt from all these elements? First, Putin’s regime is solid, and aims at remaining in place for at least six more years, if not twelve (if Putin runs again in 2030, something he can do after the change to the Constitution he made).
At the same time, Putin is also scared that the situation may get unexpectedly out of hand: the killing of Navalny and the disqualification of Nadezhdin showed that the regime did not want to take any chance regarding the re-election of Putin, which had to be a plebiscite.
At the end of the day, Putin achieved what he wanted: being re-elected as supreme leader of Russia for at least six more years, and claiming that this occurred thanks to popular support. What is he going to do with such a corroborated power?
In his latest speeches, Putin and his accolades have made it clear that Russia is preparing for a long war, not just with Ukraine, but with the wider EU community. For example, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has outlined the efforts recently made to increase Russia’s conventional military capabilities, with the aim of forming two armies, 14 divisions and 16 brigades by the end of 2024. So, the next phase of Putin’s presidency will be transforming the country into a “war economy,” which is also the only way to prop up economic activity when economic sanctions are biting. The terrorist attack by ISIS-K that hit Moscow last Friday will reinforce Putin’s intention to increase “militarise” the country.
The combined effect of Russia’s transformation into a war economy and the possibility of Trump winning the US presidential race, and therefore de-facto ditching NATO’s nuclear umbrella over Europe, is pushing European countries to further push for a common defence, and to dedicate more resources to military expenditures. As Spanish newspaper El Pais said: Europe gets ready for war.
