The Future of the USMCA

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the USMCA review reflects a broader shift from free trade toward industrial policy and economic security;
• How Washington is seeking to reshape North American supply chains to reduce dependence on China;
• Why stricter rules of origin and parallel negotiations with Canada and Mexico are redefining the agreement;
• How building regional manufacturing capabilities will require deeper upstream industrial development, not just final assembly;
• Why the USMCA is likely to endure despite rising political uncertainty, given the economic costs of a breakdown.

Download PDF: USMCA Review – August 2026