Understanding the Rise in US Treasury Yields

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why long-term US Treasury yields have risen to near two-decade highs;
• How deficits and heavy issuance are increasing pressure on bond markets;
• Why AI investment and corporate borrowing are intensifying competition for capital;
• Why higher yields may also reflect stronger growth and structurally higher real rates;
• Why Treasury buybacks cannot offset the forces keeping yields elevated.

Download PDF: UST Yields – September 2026