Last week, a dangerous escalation took place in the conflict in the Middle East. First, US President Donald Trump, who according to the New York Times is in “revenge mode”, has threatened to further hit Iranian military facilities as well as civilian infrastructure, after 13 days have passed since the breakup of the ceasefire agreement achieved in June in Islamabad.
Trump has threatened to bomb the nuclear facilities in Kūh-e Kolang, translated simply as Pickaxe Mountain, by using two GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) in sequence. MOPs were used to supposedly “obliterate” the Iranian nuclear facilities during the 12 day war in June 2025, but clearly weren’t effective enough. Certainly they won’t be effective in a mountain made of granite. The Iranians have responded by saying that if the US attacks its civilian infrastructure, it would retaliate by launching missiles on Tel Aviv, the Israeli capital.
So far, Israel has remained outside of this re-starting of hostilities, after signing a side-deal for a ceasefire in Lebanon. But it hasn’t remained inactive. It has been preparing for a large-scale territorial invasion of (or military operation in) the West Bank, which it is already occupying illegally, after the death of a settler and four Palestinians. Meanwhile, the Israeli opposition parties continue to coalesce, under the leadership of Gadi Eisenkot, to make sure that Benjamin Natanyahu is not re-elected in October.
All this is happening when a new front has just opened up in the other crucial strait of the Arabian peninsula, i.e. the Bab-el-Mandeb. There, the Houthis, historically allies of Iran and controlling the western provinces of Yemen, have struck several Saudi ships that were attempting to circumvent the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by using the Red Sea’s strait. Iran is now in direct and indirect control of both straits of the Arabian peninsula, and won’t re-open them until a final agreement is reached with the US. But we consider the possibility of such a deal being reached to be quite low at this stage, for the following reasons.
First, Trump continues to amass troops for a ground invasion in the region. Whether this is for deterrence, or to actually launch a boots- on-the-ground operation in January (as some believe), certainly the message the US is sending is that of further military engagement, not dis-engagement.
Secondly, and even more worryingly, at the same time as the US wants to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, it also signed a “Section 123 Agreement” with Saudi Arabia, allowing the Saudis to develop a nuclear program for civilian and commercial purposes. But the problem is that the “contract” that would allow this to happen does not contain the same safeguarding provisions that have been included in similar agreements struck by other US presidents in the past (e.g. George W. Bush and Barack Obama), with other monarchies of the region (e.g. the UAE). The safeguards in those earlier agreements clearly allow full access by the IEA for full inspections at all times, the impossibility of producing nuclear fuel by themselves, etc.
Trump qualified the deal by saying that Saudi Arabia can develop its nuclear program only if it first adheres to the Abraham Accords, and thus fully recognises Israel. But the Saudis said they cannot possibly do so unless Israel first agrees to the creation of a Palestinian state; the two-state solution that Israel now furiously refuses. What is worrying is that if Saudi Arabia does start its nuclear program, it would prove what we have said in our previous columns, namely that one of the end results of this war would be the proliferation of nuclear states in the region, starting with Iran and Saudi Arabia, and continuing with Turkey and Egypt.
The New York Times also reports how Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, is much more in favour than his father was of the building up of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, as the ultimate deterrent against new attacks on the country. Ali Khamanei even launched a “fatwa” against the nuclear program, when he was in power.
Finally, at the Dinner with International Correspondents held last week (during which Trump also said he wants to run for a “fourth mandate”), the president had to give a prize to the New York Times journalists that reported how the new Air Force One, donated by Qatar, was un-equipped with the latest anti-missiles facilities that the old one had, which forced Trump to come back from the NATO summit in Ankara on board the old plane, instead of the new one. This shows that he is now forced to take seriously the threat made by Iran, during the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, of killing him.
Maybe this is the reason why Trump is now saying that the US should continue talking with Iran for as long as needed, without worrying too much about the mid-term elections. Perhaps this is also because he is planning to possibly invalidate these elections anyway, as we discussed in our column last week. Other sources suggest that he was convinced by Vice President J.D. Vance and General Dan Caine, who is worried about dwindling ammunition, in particular of Patriot missiles.
