The Impact of a Possible Second Term by Trump In The Indo-Pacific

The Impact of a Possible Second Term by Trump In The Indo-Pacific

by Mirko Giordani

23 July 2024

In this paper we discuss:

1. The possibility of a Trump victory in November and its implications for the Indo-Pacific;
2. Trump’s “Grand Strategy” in the Indo-Pacific, based on protectionism against China and how this is likely to continue in his second term;
3. Why diplomats believe that Trump takes the question of Taiwan’s autonomy seriously;
4. Why Japan may benefit from a second term by Trump, as a key part of the First Island Chain, which the US hopes to bolster;
5. The cold approach Trump is likely to have towards the Quad (Australia, India and Japan), South Korea, India, ASEAN countries, including the Philippines; and
6. Why this may represent a great opportunity for China to expand its influence over ASEAN.

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