On November 5th, 2024, the US presidential election will close a busy electoral year that will begin on January 13th, with the presidential election in Taiwan, and which will continue with the Russian presidential election in March-April, the Indian general election in April-May, the European parliamentary election on June 6th-9th, and the UK general election at some point between November and December.
So far the polls have shown the following results. First, Trump is clearly ahead in the primary race for the Republican party, gathering 58% of voting intentions, thus displaying a 40 percentage point advantage as compared with his closest contender, Ron DeSantis. Second, Trump does not enjoy the favourable opinion of the majority of Americans, with 54.8% expressing an unfavourable opinion and only 40% exhibiting a favourable opinion. Third, President Biden finds himself in a similar position to Trump, since 55% of Americans disapprove his actions, versus 38.7% approval. Fourth, in a rematch of the 2020 race, Biden and Trump are neck and neck, with polls showing a small advantage alternatively for either candidate. And fifth, consensus polls show that the Senate may return to being in the hands of the GOP, which already controls the House of Representative.
A recent set of polls show that Trump is gaining an advantage versus Biden. In particular, a New York Times/Siena poll found Biden was behind Trump in five of the six most important battleground states, fuelled by doubts about his handling of the economy, questions about his age, and discontent on other issues such as the Israel-Hamas conflict. Younger, black, and Hispanic constituencies don’t agree with Biden’s conduct on this issue. Biden would lose to Trump by margins of 3-10% in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead in Wisconsin by a 2% margin. Yet he carried all of these crucial swing states in the successful 2020 race. Voters said they trusted Trump over Biden on the economy by 59% to 37%, the widest gap on record. Across the electorate Trump got better marks on the economy, regardless of gender, age, education or income level. A CBS News poll also showed that more voters thought they would be better off financially if Trump were to win in 2024, and that Biden has failed to win over Democrats in the way that Trump has convinced Republicans.
Another factor complicating Biden’s hopes for re-election is the proliferation of independent candidates that could take away more votes from him than from Trump. Robert Kennedy Jr, a nephew of the late former president John F. Kennedy, has been running for president as an independent for several months. Last week Jill Stein, a leftwing activist, said she will run again for the Green party in the 2024 presidential race. In addition, Joe Manchin, the centrist Democratic senator from West Virginia, announced he would not seek a new term in Congress and may run for the White House. Manchin could be backed by No Labels, a centrist organisation led by former Democratic senator Joe Lieberman and former Maryland Republican governor Larry Hogan.
Independent candidates may subtract voters from either candidate. In 1992, Ross Perot prevented incumbent president George Bush from being re-elected. In 2000, the few votes gathered by Ralph Nader were sufficient to prevent Al Gore from being elected president. In 2016, Jill Stein gathered more votes than the difference between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in key swing states. The fact that Joe Lieberman, the candidate for the Vice-President position during the unsuccessful race by Al Gore in 2000, is the leader of No Labels really does not bode well for the incumbent president.
In the UK, the 5th of November is celebrated as Guy Fawkes day, from the name of the person who tried to kill King James I, along with his parliament, in 1605. Since that day, the anniversary is celebrated as a national holiday with bonfires (“Remember, Remember the 5thof November”). Time will tell if the 5th of November 2024 will also be remembered in the US as the beginning of a new era, when the US stopped being the beacon of democracy in the world.
