Deterrence Without the Bomb? The Iran War and the Future of Proliferation

In this paper, we discuss:

• How the Iran war is reshaping the global debate over nuclear deterrence and proliferation;
• Why the conflict has highlighted both the risks of remaining a nuclear threshold state and the limits of nuclear deterrence;
• How states are increasingly relying on alternative forms of deterrence, including missiles, drones, cyber capabilities, and strategic chokepoints;
• Why most countries are more likely to strengthen deterrence and strategic hedging than pursue nuclear weapons;
• How the future of the global non-proliferation regime will depend on the Iran settlement, US security guarantees, and renewed arms control efforts.

Download PDF: Iran War – July 2026