Global LNG Shock and Europe’s Growing Vulnerability

In this paper, we discuss:

• A global LNG supply shock driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Qatari exports;
• Structural inelasticity in LNG markets, amplifying price volatility and delaying adjustment;
• Europe’s growing vulnerability due to reliance on spot LNG markets and low storage levels;
• Spillovers from energy to food systems, increasing risks of broader inflation;
• The geopolitical role of LNG, strengthening U.S. leverage and reshaping global energy markets. 

Download PDF: Europe LNG – April 2026