China’s Fourth Plenum and the Strategic Orientation of the 15th Five-Year Plan

by Nato Balavadze

In this paper, we discuss:

• The Fourth Plenum’s approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan under far more complex domestic and global conditions;
• China’s structural transition into a “post-development era,” defined by post-industrialisation, post-urbanisation, and post-globalisation pressures;
• The centrality of boosting domestic demand, amid weak consumption momentum and deflationary signals;
• Mounting structural constraints, such as overcapacity, labour mismatches, and rising local-government debt;
• A new investment map that prioritises renewable energy, computing power, AI, marking a clear pivot away from traditional infrastructure.

Download PDF: China Fourth Plenum November 2025