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Macro Picture
Sep 02, 2026

China Shock 2.0: Drivers, Industrial Ascendance and Global Conflict

Nato Balavadze

In this paper, we discuss:

  • What is driving China Shock 2.0 and growing global trade tensions;
  • How China Shock 2.0 differs from the original China shock;
  • Why Germany and Europe’s advanced industries are particularly exposed;
  • How Chinese industrial upgrading challenges the overcapacity narrative;
  • Why Western economies need capability-building alongside trade protection.

Download PDF: China Shock 2 – September 2026

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