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Research
Mar 31, 2026

Bitcoin in a Changing Macro Regime

Brunello Rosa

Nato Balavadze

In this paper, we discuss:

  • Why Bitcoin is not rising despite M2 expansion, due to weaker effective liquidity and tighter financial conditions;Why Bitcoin is not acting as “digital gold,” instead behaving as a risk-sensitive macro asset;The indirect impact of higher energy prices on mining through lower prices and compressed margins;How institutional adoption is reshaping Bitcoin’s price dynamics and liquidity transmission;Bitcoin’s increasing sensitivity to macro conditions as it becomes integrated into traditional portfolios.

    • Download PDF: Bitcoin – March 2026

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