The Anticipated Trump-Xi Summit: Why Tensions Are Structural

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why US-China tensions are structural, rooted in technology, industrial policy, and supply chain competition;
• The limited role of diplomacy, with dialogue increasingly managing rather than resolving conflicts;
• The shift in trade from integration to fragmentation, with supply chains reconfigured rather than decoupled;
• China’s long-term strategy of resilience versus a more reactive US policy approach;
• The broader geopolitical and energy asymmetries shaping a more fragmented, multipolar global order.

Download PDF: US China – April 2026