Venezuela After Maduro: Power, Oil, and the Limits of External Control

In this paper, we discuss:

• Maduro’s arrest marks a sharp escalation, but Venezuela’s core power structures remain intact, limiting US control;
• US leverage relies on oil, sanctions, and recognition, not direct governance;
• The military and interim leadership remain key domestic power brokers;
• The real strategic prize is control over future oil revenues, with broader implications for norms of sovereignty.

Download PDF: Venezuela – February 2026