Is the US – Iran Ceasefire Built to Last? Reading the new US-Iran Deal

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the new US-Iran ceasefire is more likely to hold than previous agreements reached since the conflict began;
• How reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade address the most urgent economic drivers of the conflict;
• Why unresolved disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme and sanctions relief remain major obstacles to a lasting settlement;
• How Israel’s rejection of the agreement represents the most immediate risk to the ceasefire’s durability;
• Why the deal should be viewed as a structured armistice rather than a comprehensive peace settlement.

Download PDF: US – Iran Deal – June 2026