At the end of last week, we published a report titled “A Month of Political Shocks in U.S. Elections: Trump’s Nomination, Biden’s Withdrawal And Harris’ Endorsement.” In this report we discussed the political shocks that have affected US politics in the last few weeks.
First, former President Donald Trump suffered an attempted assassination that left him wounded. A few days after the attack, he was confirmed as the official nominee of the Republican Party for the race to the White House that will take place of November 5th. On that occasion he chose JD Vance as his pick for Vice President. Ironically, a few years ago, JD Vance called Trump “America’s Hitler.” He must have changed his mind, or perhaps become increasingly similar to Trump in the meantime.
For example, three years ago Vance said that people with children should be given more voting power than those without kids. The idea is that, supposedly, parents have more of a vested interest in the future of the country than those without. Apart from the wobbly logic behind that idea, this a direct attack on the 1776 Declaration of Independence of the US, which starts by saying that “all men are created equal,” without saying that “parents are more equal than others.” What we know now is that Trump has found somebody with views as radical and outrageous as his own. It is fair to assume that if Trump wins the election on November 5th, the pair will start a swift implementation of Project 2025, as confirmed by JD Vance itself. The grab of power from the pair would be so “ruthless” (to use Vance’s words), than in four years “Americans won’t have to vote again.”
The second shock was the decision by President Joe Biden to drop out of the race for the White House, for the greater good of the “country and the party.” Biden knew that without the fundamental support of the party, and its donors, he would not stand a chance to win against Trump. In the days preceding the announcement, a number of party grandees had increased their pressure on Biden to convince him to withdraw from the race. He will now focus on completing his mandate as President, and likely preserve his legacy: 15 million jobs created since the beginning of his presidency, milestone legislation passed (such as the Inflation Reduction Act), and unwavering support provided to Ukraine in its attempt to resist the brutal aggression by Russia, just to name a few of his accomplishments.
The third element in recent weeks was the endorsement Biden gave to Kamala Harris, his Vice President, to replace him in the Presidential race. Harris has quickly gathered the endorsement of some key party members such as the governor of California (Gavin Newsom, who could have aspired to run himself, but will now have to wait) as well as Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, and Roy Cooper, the governor of North Carolina. Finally, and most importantly, Kamala Harris gathered the support of the Clintons and especially of the Obamas. She will now have to face an uphill battle, as some polls show she is neck and neck with Trump, or slightly behind him. Apart from her undoubtful merits, is a country that shows such a strong support to Trump ready to elect a woman, and even a black woman, to the White House?
After these three shocks, the presidential race is now re-opened, and any result is possible. We continue to think this will be the most consequential election in recent US history, in which its liberal democracy is at stake.
