The US electoral campaign for the US presidential election is starting to enter its crucial phase. In the Democratic camp, Joe Biden is so far the only candidate, being the incumbent president. In spite of this, a number of questions have been raised about his ability to effectively discharge his duties, given his age and mental state. The report of the special counsel Robert Hur, in charge of the investigation on the handling of confidential information at the time Biden was vice president under Barack Obama, defines Biden as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man, with a poor memory.”
Clearly, a younger and more energetic candidate would serve better the cause of the Democratic party, however changing the horse race nine months before the election day is an exceptionally high risk. Building a credible candidate in such a short period of time is a very complicated proposition. Having anybody running againstor even after Biden would be equivalent to admitting that Biden was not a good president, thus destroying his legacy; with all possible caveats, a strong economy with a robust labour market and the courageous handling of the war in Ukraine are certainly good feathers in Biden’s cap, even if the electorate seems reluctant to give him credit for that.
Kamala Harris is not a viable option, for reasons already discussed. Some are suggesting that if Michelle Obama were to run instead of Kamala Harris for vice president, that could have a positive impact in the Democratic camp. Yet it would increase the suspicion that the Democrats are run by dynasties. So, the politics of changing Biden as Democratic candidate is more complicated than one might think prima facie.
The Republican camp is not necessarily in better shape. A clear winner of the primary election campaign is emerging, Donald Trump, but this may not lead to a final victory. For reasons discussed in greater detail below, Trump may be able to mobilise the base of the party, but he is also a candidate that scares the centrist component of the Republican electorate, the one that ultimately decides the vote in the general election. For this reason, the Democrats believe that Trump is the best candidate to run against, as he can convince even reluctant centrist Republicans to vote for Biden.
Biden, having realised that Bidenomics is not a good argument to run on in order to win the sympathy of the median voter, has decided to transform the election in a referendum on the survival of the US democracy. We believe there is quite a bit of merit in this approach, for the following reasons.
The US Constitution has evolved in the last two centuries to prevent leaders with autocratic tendencies from winning power and transforming the system from the inside to perpetuate their rule beyond the limits established by the Constitution itself. The 14th amendment, which prevents people who have supported insurrections from holding office, is a case in point. The Constitution does not want leaders with an organised militia to gain power and transform the US democracy into an autocracy, or even into a dictatorship. This amendment has been utilised in Colorado and in Maine to strike Trump out of the primary election ballot, and now this decision is being challenged in the Supreme Court. The case started on February 8th.
This is only one of the many legal obstacles that Trump will have to overcome to win the primary election and eventually the run-off against Biden. If Trump manages to overcome all of them and to be elected president again, he already said he will be “dictator for one day”. But the reality is that he would radically transform the US political system from within, marking the end of the US liberal democracy.
