The Global Fallout of US Political Volatility: How International Allies Are Hedging Ahead of the US Midterm Elections

In this paper, we discuss:

• Why the US midterm elections could reshape Washington’s global commitments;
• How European allies are strengthening defence autonomy amid US political uncertainty;
• Why middle powers are building regional security partnerships to reduce reliance on Washington;
• Why foreign governments are deepening direct ties with US states and lawmakers to hedge against political volatility.

Download PDF: US Midterms – October 2026