Oil, Power, and Stalemate: The US-Iran Crisis

In this paper, we discuss:

• The escalation of the US-Iran conflict from a shadow war into direct military and naval confrontation;
• The Strait of Hormuz becoming the central flashpoint, with a “dual blockade” disrupting global shipping and energy flows;
• The global economic fallout, including higher oil prices, inflation pressures, and supply chain disruptions;
• The emergence of a prolonged stalemate, with neither side achieving decisive strategic success;
• Iran’s use of asymmetric tactics to maintain resilience, increase leverage, and strengthen its bargaining position.

Download PDF: US-Iran – May 2026