Us Curve And Recession July 2018

MARKET VIEWS

Yield Curve “Near-Inversion” Does Not Imply U.S. Recession

By Brunello Rosa

13 July 2018

In this paper we discuss:

• The recent flattening of the US yield curve and its likely causes;
• The role of the term premium in the future dynamics of long-term US yields;
• The relationship between yield curve slope and recession probability; and
• What we expect long-term rates and the slope of the yield curve to do in coming months.

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