Russia After the Ukraine War: Structural Legacies, Elite Shifts, and Peripheral Risks

In this paper, we discuss:

• A post-war Russia is likely to remain more militarised, autarkic, and revisionist rather than returning to its pre-2022 trajectory; 
• The war has strengthened defence-linked elites and entrenched the military-industrial complex as a key pillar of the economy;
• Armenia and Kazakhstan are the most likely arenas for renewed Russian efforts to reassert influence; 
• Moscow may increasingly favour hybrid tactics, legal pressure, and grey-zone operations over direct military confrontation with NATO;
• The greatest risk is miscalculation, as incremental escalation and peripheral conflicts could trigger broader tensions with the West.

Download PDF: Ukraine War – June 2026