Turkey Fears a “Limited” War with Iran Would Never Stay Limited

In this paper, we discuss:

• Turkey’s view that even a “limited” US strike on Iran would rapidly escalate into a regional war;
• Ankara’s fear of state fragmentation, refugee flows, and energy disruptions spilling into Turkish territory;
• Turkey’s rejection of regime-collapse scenarios, prioritising regional stability over alignment with Tehran;
• Ankara’s push for incremental diplomacy, focusing first on the nuclear file rather than maximalist demands;
• Turkey’s leverage as a mediator, based on rare dual access to both Washington and Tehran

Download the PDF: Turkey and Iran – GSA – February 2026