The highly anticipated US-Russia summit in Alaska ended as one could have imagined from the very beginning, namely with no concrete results. This is partly due to the fact that Putin made demands, such as territorial concessions, that Trump could not agree to. During the 12-minute press conference at the end of the 3-hour meeting, both Putin and Trump did not reveal any details of their conversation, even though Trump said that some progress was made. For those expecting the summit to end with a ceasefire in Ukraine, this was certainly a disappointment. But this outcome has never realistically been on the cards.
On the other hand, Putin can claim victory on a number of fronts. First, while an arrest warrant for him from the International Criminal Court is still pending, he could freely land on US soil, for the first time since 2018 (which was also during Trump’s presidency). He was welcomed on a red carpet with an applauding Trump waiting for him. He was even granted the privilege of riding in the same car (the Presidential “Cadillac One”) with the US President.
Additionally, even if he was the guest, he could speak first in the final press conference, where he could explain, without interruption, the “profound causes” of the conflict. He received, once again, Trump’s “seal” that Russia didn’t meddle with US elections in 2016, which would have benefited Trump himself, contradicting the conclusion of US intelligence. So, Putin regained the international recognition that was stripped away by former president Biden, when Biden said that Putin was a “war criminal”.
What did Trump gain from the meeting? First of all, he reinforced the message that the end of the war will need to come through him, and that the Europeans, including Ukraine, are just second-tier actors in this dispute. Second, he managed to divert attention away from the Epstein scandal, which among other things was becoming extremely divisive for his MAGA base. Third, he put another brick in the wall that he is building towards a Yalta 2.0 agreement, which would also include Chinese president Xi. Fourth, he reinforced his credentials as a deal-maker and a peace maker, in his attempt to obtain the much coveted Nobel Peace Prize. But, even for some of Trump’s loyalists, this is not enough to claim victory at this meeting.
What did the Europeans get out of this meeting? The fact that this meeting wasn’t a “Munich 1938” repetition. On that occasion, UK Premier Neville Chamberlain “appeased” Hitler, giving him the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia, in what proved to be the initial operation of WW2. The risk here was that Trump would give Putin Ukraine’s Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire, not even a full end of the war.
Let’s focus a bit more on the path to a potential Yalta 2.0 agreement. Why is it more likely after this meeting? For a series of reasons. First, Putin was still considered a pariah by the international community, so he needed a pre-emptive legitimisation from the American president, beyond the Chinese recognition, which he has now taken for granted. Putin made it clear that, for him, Russia is at par with the US on the international stage, whereas at the time of the Obama and Biden presidencies it was considered at most a “regional” power. Second, before appearing in a triumvirate with Xi and Putin, Trump needed to show up with both of them, even if separately at the moment. So last week’s meeting achieved that purpose. Third, Trump started selling the idea that territorial compromises will need to be made, at the global level, to reach the greater good of a new world order: selected countries will have to accept some sacrifices in this respect, starting with Ukraine.
