Italy is Happily Out of the Radar Screen, But Remains Vulnerable to Shocks

Italy is Happily Out of the Radar Screen, But Remains Vulnerable to Shocks

By Brunello Rosa

22 October 2024

In this paper we discuss:

• Italy’s short-term out-performance vs EZ peers, and medium-term underperformance;
• The difficult fiscal position, with the country needing to reduce the budget deficit and its debt;
• The new Structural Budget Plan the Treasury has presented to Brussel;
• The limited influence Italy will have in the new EU Commission;
• Meloni’s control over the country’s political system, while the opposition re-organises; and
• Recent market developments, with BTP- Bund spread much narrower, but the spread vs Spain and Portugal remaining too wide.

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