In the past few weeks many events have occurred that have made the world a more dangerous place. In mid-March, a MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drone collided with two Russian Su-27 fighter jets and fell into the Black Sea. This is the first official “military exchange” between Russian and NATO forces over the conflict in Ukraine; albeit an indirect one, as the drone was un-armed and the Russian jets did not aim to shoot it down.
Subsequently, the state visit by Xi Jinping to Moscow made the “limitless cooperation” between China and Russia even stronger than it already was. And Xi can no longer credibly say that Putin misled him regarding his intentions on Ukraine. After one year of war, with dozens of thousands of deaths, it is perfectly clear what Putin’s intentions are, and it is also clear that Xi will not try to dissuade him from reaching his aims, at least not yet. (Apart from the fig leaf that is the purported “Chinese Peace Plan”). This comes after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin for war crimes, in particular for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
Russia has now started to use the Chinese yuan as its international reserve currency, in a sign of subjugation to its stronger ally. It is yet to be seen whether China will start openly selling weapons to Russia for its “special operation” in Ukraine. That would mark a definite escalation of the conflict, and its official transformation into a proxy war between the US and China.
Finally, Russia has declared that it will deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, in an extreme attempt at dissuading NATO countries (chiefly the Baltics and Poland) from providing further military assistance to Ukraine. Putin has also said that NATO and his allies are now akin to the Nazi alliance that Russia fought during WWII, which in Russia was called the “Great Patriotic War.” NATO responded that Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus is “dangerous and irresponsible.”
One could give further examples, but the story here is clear. The rhetoric coming from the two sides is hardening, instead of softening, and their actions are also escalating, in terms of NATO providing support to Ukraine and China helping Russia. Contemplating a nuclear attack in Ukraine has now become part of the central scenario, rather than a tail or even a risk scenario. It is understood that NATO would not react to a Russian nuclear attack with a nuclear response, but rather with a conventional retaliation of devastating proportions, to obliterate the Russian army in Ukraine, potentially including in Crimea.
World leaders seem to be sleepwalking into a nuclear Armageddon that could lead to World War 3. This is the reason why incidents such as the contact between the Russian jets and the US drone may be much more consequential than they could appear prima facie. One can imagine that in a situation of even higher tension between the two sides, a collision of this kind could easily be construed as the pretext for the beginning of direct military exchange between NATO and Russia, similar in nature to the killing of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo, which of course marked the beginning of WWI.
