On October 7th, 2023, the world witnessed the massacre conducted by Hamas militias in Israel, in what was labelled “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.” In subsequent weeks, the atrocities, including a number of gender-based crimes, committed by the Hamas militias emerged in the recounts of the surviving victims. After an initial hesitation, and after various attempts by world leaders, including the US president, to dissuade Israel’s prime minister, Israeli troops entered the Gaza strip in early November and began their land operations, aimed at – possibly – eradicating Hamas.
At that point, the conflict remained confined to Israel, with Hezbollah from Lebanon not joining Hamas in its attack into Israel. Behind an incendiary rhetoric, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah remained vague and refused to engage in what he described as a “Palestinian” action. We noted the risk that Russia could enter the conflict with a mediation role, pretending to be the only actor that could convince Iran (which finances both Hamas and Hezbollah) not to enter the conflict. At that point, the conflict seemed to remain localised, and unlikely to escalate even at the regional level .
However, in the last few days, a series of events occurred that made an extension of the conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas more likely. First of all was the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, a key figure in the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, and a close ally of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader and considered to be his deputing political leader. Arouri was killed in a “surgical strike” in Lebanon, in a Hezbollah stronghold in the southern Beirut suburbs, where he had been acting as a connection between his group and Hezbollah.
Following this assassination, the response by Nasrallah was stronger than previously. He reportedly said: “If the enemy thinks of waging a war on Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, without rules, without limits and without restrictions.” At the same time, he kept some room for caution, when he said: “For now we are fighting on the frontline following meticulous calculations.”
This speech had been pre-planned to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the death of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp general Qassem Soleimani. But that occurrence did not go as planned. In fact, on the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Soleimani – who had been touted to become Iran’s next Supreme Leader – by a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020, a terrorist attack was carried out by ISIS in Kerman in southern Iran. The attack caused 84 deaths and several more wounded people. In this case too the subsequent speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was filled with hard rhetoric, as he vowed a “harsh response” to this attack, which was initially blamed on Israel and/or the US.
These events follow air strikes by US and Israeli forces in Iraq and Syria, which took place at the end of 2023, which resulted in the death of over 30 militants including a senior commander of the Nujaba Movement, Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi. These strikes were a response to a series of 115 coordinated attacks launched by Iran-backed militias on U.S. military bases and assets in Syria and Iraq, which began on 17 October.
In our view, the fact that other countries (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon) started being involved in terrorist attacks or episodes of war testifies that the risk of a further escalation of the conflict to a regional scale has increased in recent weeks. It could potentially expand beyond the region as well, considering that US, Russia and China are all somehow involved or interested in this dispute. As we discussed in our recent trip report from the region, the next few months will clarify whether this expansion of the conflict will become a reality or not.
