The indictment of Donald Trump took place last week. The former US president will have to surrender to the New York judiciary on Tuesday, two weeks after he had anticipated to occur. He is accused of having used electoral campaign funds to buy the silence of “Stormy Daniels,” a porn-star, regarding an affair they had at the time when Trump was married to Melania, and she was expecting their only child, Barron. Daniels’ silence may have also altered the course of the electoral campaign that led to Trump’s victory in November 2016.
Trump will likely use this scandal as proof of the establishment’s attempt to keep him out of power, against the will of the “true Americans” he purportedly represents. This will make the 2024 electoral campaign even more tense than one could have anticipated, and the risk of civil unrest will increase dramatically, both before the election – to prevent voting from taking place – and after it, if Trump again loses and claims the results were fraudulent.
Western countries, and even G7 countries, have already experienced similar situations, the most similar being Italy under Berlusconi. But the US is the beacon for Western democracies and cannot afford to stage such a depressing “show.”
But the US is not the only Western country that is exhibiting a worrying collapse in the quality of its political leaders. In the UK, the populist leadership under Boris Johnson led the country to implement the referendum on Brexit with a “hard-leave”, a rare example of a self-inflicted wound that will be felt for generations, and will be hard to undo. Luckily, the Tory leadership is now in the safer hands of Rishi Sunak, after the disastrous interregnum of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng.
In Germany, after the fall of Merkel, a clear successor in terms of charisma has not yet emerged in any party. On the right side of the political spectrum, Friedrich Merz is facing the challenge of unifying the CDU behind his liberal positions. On the left, Olaf Scholz is having a hard time exerting leadership over his coalition, in which Christian Lindner is facing the possibility for his Liberal party not to re-enter parliament. The Greens meanwhile are busy with a leadership clash between their two co-leaders, Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck.
In France, it is unclear what happens after the presidency of Macron. Macron was a product of the French elites, but he has not yet built a credible legacy in terms of enacting policies or facilitating the emergence of credible successors. His controversial pension reform, which was approved through the Article 49.3, which allows the government to circumvent parliament, has not made him more popular. In 2027, a possible victory by Marine Le Pen is considered to be the central scenario. And Marine Le Pen has not yet built a credible profile as a good administrator of France’s domestic and international affairs.
In Italy, prime minister Meloni is avoiding making huge mistakes, but the different weight Italy is considered to have on decision-making processes after the Mario Draghi’s era has been abundantly noted. Meloni herself believes that it is Macron who is keeping her out of the most relevant decision tables within European politics. At the same time, Italy’s difficulties in spending the money coming from the EU’s Recovery Fund is not helping to improve the country’s image in terms of its efficiency and effectiveness.
Especially at a time when the West is committed in a war against Russia, and indirectly against China (which is the champion of all existing and potential autocracies), it cannot afford to be presenting itself with such un-inspiring political leadership. The survival of democracy itself is at stake.
