The fall of the Assad regime in Syria, which we predicted in our recent analysis of the conflicts in the Middle East, marks a monumental shift in the political and strategic dynamics of the region. There are many causes behind this regime change, which has been led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group once affiliated to al-Qaeda. Assad’s removal will result in far-reaching consequences for the region.
Starting with the causes: at the heart of the Assad regime’s downfall lies the Syrian civil war’s enduring brutality. Beginning in 2011 – at the time of the so-called “Arab Spring” – the conflict stemmed from widespread protests against authoritarian rule, corruption, and economic stagnation. Over time, the opposition evolved into a fragmented collection of rebel groups, further complicating any resolution. While Assad’s government initially managed to retain power through the cynical use of military force, the support of Russia, and a lack of unified opposition leadership, the prolonged war severely weakened the country’s institutions and economy.
International involvement has played a dual role in both sustaining and undermining Assad’s rule. Russia and Iran have provided critical military and economic support, allowing the regime to push back against opposition forces. Conversely, Western nations, Turkey, and Gulf states have backed various opposition factions. This proxy-war dynamic has prolonged the conflict, while periodic shifts in alliances have kept the regime on an unstable footing.
Adding to this is the critical role of public discontent within Syria. Years of war have devastated infrastructure, displaced millions, and left a once-vibrant middle class impoverished. The erosion of the state’s legitimacy among its own people, including segments of Assad’s Alawite base, has further undermined the rule of the Assad family.
A critical factor that has led to the collapse of the regime has been Israel’s recent military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah, a Shia militant group and political party backed by Iran, has been a critical ally to Assad throughout the civil war. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters have fought alongside Syrian government forces, playing a pivotal role in key battles.
Israel, viewing Hezbollah as a primary threat, has carried out numerous strikes in Lebanon and Syria targeting the group’s infrastructure, supply chains, and leadership. Indeed Hezbollah’s leadership was decapitated with the killing of its secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. While these operations were ostensibly aimed at neutralizing Hezbollah’s growing capabilities, they also strained the resources and focus of both Hezbollah and Iran, indirectly weakening Assad’s position.
The collapse of the Assad regime now risks unleashing a cascade of consequences. Internally, Syria could fragment into rival factions and territories dominated by militias and extremist groups, similar to post-Gaddafi Libya. The power vacuum might embolden terrorist organizations like ISIS to resurge, threatening regional stability.
Regionally, Assad’s fall is likely to further weaken Iran’s strategic foothold in the Levant, disrupting its “Shia Crescent” ambitions as well as its “Axis of Resistance.” This could embolden Gulf states and Israel, potentially escalating sectarian tensions and proxy conflicts. For Russia, the loss of a key ally would mark a blow to its influence in the Middle East.
For the West, Assad’s collapse presents a double-edged sword. While it would signify the end of a brutal dictatorship, managing Syria’s post-Assad chaos would require significant diplomatic and humanitarian resources, a task Western powers have historically struggled with in similar contexts.
