In this paper, we discuss:
• ASEAN’s likely fragmentation in a Taiwan crisis, with national interests outweighing collective unity;
• Taiwan’s strategic role in regional supply chains, energy routes, and semiconductor production;
• The Philippines as the most exposed state, closely aligned with US security posture;
• How economic dependence on China will shape differing responses across Southeast Asia.
Download PDF: ASEAN – MG – February 2026
