REVIEW: ECB on Hold in April, But A Rate Hike Is Getting Closer

In this paper, we discuss:

• The ECB held rates steady but signalled rising concern over inflation and a growing likelihood of a June rate hike;
• A clear shift toward a more hawkish stance, with the Governing Council debating tightening options;
• A data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach amid heightened geopolitical and energy-driven uncertainty;
• Increasing downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, driven by the energy shock;
• Market expectations of multiple rate hikes this year, with tightening seen as gradual and cautious.

Download PDF: ECB Review – April 2026