Review: BoE On Hold in April But Ready To Act, Depending on What Scenario Materialises

In this paper, we discuss:

• The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, adopting an “active hold” amid high uncertainty;
• The Iran war-driven energy shock is raising inflation risks while weakening demand;
• A scenario-based policy framework reflecting uncertainty around the scale and persistence of the shock;
• Diverging views within the MPC, with some members leaning toward a tightening bias;
• A flexible, meeting-by-meeting approach, with policy contingent on how inflation and growth evolve.

Download PDF: BOE Review – April 2026