On Wednesday 22 May, in what is likely to be remembered as one of the most disastrous announcements in UK politics from a communication perspective, PM Rishi Sunak announced that Parliament was dissolved and general elections were being called for July 4th. This was also the day on which the latest inflation figures were released: CPI inflation had fallen to 2.3% y/y, from 3.2% previously.
The inflation figures allowed Sunak to claim that he kept one of the promises made in the past, namely that he would reduce inflation back to more “normal” levels. The merit for this should however go mostly to the Bank of England, which increased its policy rates by 500bps in the space of about 18 months. Given the polls showing the Tory party trailing the Labour party by 22 points, a heavy defeat for the Tory party is likely. Sunak therefore had to choose the moment in which the Tory party could flag a victory, hoping to minimize the damage.
In a country with a first-past-the-post electoral system, the real question is how a lead in the polls will translate into a parliamentary majority. In a 650 seat House of Commons, the numerical majority is 326 MPs. As Peter Kellner reminded his readers in a recent article for The Times, Sunak may also win with 315 seats, if the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) agreed to enter into a coalition with him, as they did with Theresa May in 2017 – and assuming that the Sinn Fein’s MPs continue to boycott the UK Parliament.
For Labour’s Keir Starmer, forming an anti-Tory coalition is easier. Depending on how many MPs are elected by the Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, the Welsh Plaid Cymru, Greens, and Northern Ireland’s parties, Starmer may be asked to form a government with as little as 270 Labour MPs. But how long would such a minority, or coalition, government last?
The truth is that Labour will need at least 340 seats to make sure it can stay in power for five years. Some pollsters expect a landslide victory for Labour, similar to the one that catapulted Tony Blair to N.10 Downing Street in 1997. This may not necessarily be good news. Given the tradition of in-fighting and splintering by left-wing parties, especially during periods of war, a “too-large” parliamentary group may convince the fringes to break up with the rest of the party, putting Labour’s parliamentary majority at risk.
In terms of policies, Labour has recently launched the idea of “Securonomics,” which was recently presented at Chatham House by the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Shadow Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, taking inspiration from Joe Biden’s administration.
“Securonomics” is a political strategy seeking a synergy between economic and foreign policy to make sure the UK will be resilient to future economic and geopolitical shocks. Lammy has spoken of putting economic prosperity and resilience at the centre of the FCDO’s objectives, if he were to take that role, within a foreign policy doctrine that he labelled “progressive realism.”
The Tories have very little to defend, in terms of legacy. Their major contribution has been “Get Brexit Done,” as the slogan by Boris Johnson said. But the number of people in the UK that believe that Brexit was a mistake reached 55% recently, with only 31% thinking it was a good idea, thus signalling that it is not going to be a very popular electoral campaign argument. Sunak’s decision to re-instate compulsory national service was not well received by his fellow party members either. This electoral campaign should be aimed at damage control for the Tory party.
