By Fawaz Sulaiman Al Mughrabi, Karmen Meneses and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

16 August 2021

In this paper we discuss:

1 – Macroeconomic Context: Global Growth Prospects Remain Supported By Accommodative Liquidity Conditions, And Improved Business Activities

2 – Geopolitical Context: Risks Deriving Mainly From Russia, China and Iran

3 – Oil Outlook (2021-22): Oil Market Fundamentals Continue To Strengthen, As The Economic Recovery Continues

4 – Base Case Scenario (70% Probability): Oil Prices Will Moderate As Demand Uncertainties Heighten – Driven By The COVID-19 Delta Variant

5 – Market Impact: Market Volatility And Price Uncertainty Will Linger; Valuations Will Improve

6 – Risks And Alternative Scenarios

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