Last week, Russia launched its Luna-25 robotic probe with a Sojuz 2.1b rocket, in an ideal continuation of the lunar programme interrupted 47 years ago. The Russian aim is to achieve the first successful landing on the southern polar region of the moon, a location believed to contain valuable deposits of water ice. This is only a piece of the much larger jigsaw that constitutes the ongoing second race to the moon, after the one that occurred in the 1960s-70s, which culminated in the moon landing of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on 20 July 1969.
Like the first moon race, this second is occurring in parallel with a much wider Cold War between two of the world’s super-powers. In the 1960-70s, these were the US and the Soviet Union. In that instance, the Soviets managed to make initial advances with the first satellite in orbit (Sputnik), the first animal in space (the dog Laika) and the first man in space (Yuri Gagarin). The US only later caught up, with the moon landing. This time, Cold War 2 is between US and China, and this moon race is also being led by these two countries.
The two contenders share the same aim: establishing a monopoly in certain areas of the moon, in order to be able to claim the resources deriving from them (in particular, rare materials that are necessary to building semiconductors). With the same aim in mind, the US and China will follow two very different approaches. The US is involving the private sector in the race, with both Blue Origin sponsored by Jeff Bezos and Space X by Elon Musk aiming to provide a rocket for the mission (the Blue Moon and Starship rockets, respectively). On the other hand, the Chinese government will keep a monopoly over its mission, while seeking inputs from its allies. China has already established a presence on the moon with Yutu-2, a rover that has been sending precious data from “the dark side of the moon” in the last few years.
In terms of alliances, there are 27 countries on the US side that have signed the Artemis Accords, including France, Italy, Spain, and the UK from Europe, and also Canada, Japan, Brazil, and Israel. Initially even Russia was part of it: its space agency Roscosmos in 2017 signed an agreement with NASA to build an orbiting space station called Lunar Gateway. But as time passe, Russia started siding with China, and in 2021 it signed an agreement to build the International Lunar Research Station, an embryonic colony. China can also count on the collaboration of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Mongolia, Peru, Thailand and other countries from the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization.
These alliances tend to replicate the groupings that we generally see in the Cold War 2 disputes, with three notable exceptions. First, Turkey, a NATO member, has signed an agreement with China for this space race. Second, the United Arab Emirates has signed both the Artemis Accords and an agreement with China. (Holding both positions like this seem untenable in the long run, as the US will likely soon demand these countries to make a choice, following the logic of “you’re either with me or against me”). And third, most importantly, India, which in Cold War 2 is hedging its bets and maintaining a non-aligned position, in this case has decided to sign the Artemis Accords and side with the US.
