“Dawn of a New Era” in The Middle East? Ceasefires, Realignments, and the New Geopolitics of Influence

By Brunello Rosa and Gulf State Analytics

In this paper, we discuss:

• Signs of a less conflictual Middle East emerging from recent ceasefires, diplomatic shifts, and changing U.S. domestic attitudes toward Israel;
• Trump’s transactional diplomacy, which stabilises tensions temporarily but leaves core political issues unresolved;
• How Israel’s strike on Doha exposed limits of U.S. influence and pushed Gulf states toward greater strategic autonomy, including defence pacts with Pakistan and expanded ties with China and Iran;
• The Gulf’s emerging AI-driven realignment, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE positioning themselves as global tech hubs through massive U.S.-linked investments;
• Whether these geopolitical shifts could generate a “peace dividend” similar to post-WW2 Europe, if regional powers can prioritise stability over renewed escalation.

Download PDF: Middle East New Era November 2025