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Research
Jan 15, 2026

Market Outlook 2026: Equities, Bonds, FX and Commodities

Nato Balavadze

In this paper we discuss:

  • Stretched equity valuations and concentration risk, driven by AI-led mega-caps
  • A widening gap between financial and real assets, implying lower future returns
  • A selective bond outlook, with easing supporting the front end while fiscal risks pressure long yields
  • A softer dollar and mixed commodity outlook, with gold supported and oil facing supply-driven downside.


Download PDF: Policy Outlook 2026

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