Last week there was a series of military exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel said that it launched a preventive air strike just minutes before Hezbollah – according to intelligence gathered by Israel’s secret services – would have started to launch missiles at Israel as a retribution for the assassination of Fuad Shukr, which occurred in Beirut on 30 July.
Shukr was a member of Hezbollah’s founding generation, and for over four decades he was one of the group’s leading military figures and a military advisor to its leader Hassan Nasrallah. This assassination occurred just one day before the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader in Tehran. In response to the attack, Hezbollah reacted by sending 320 Katyusha missiles targeting Israel’s military air bases. According to the FT, “the exchange of fire was the biggest between Israel and Iran-backed Hizbollah since they fought a 34-day war in 2006.” This episode re-opens the risk of a further expansion of the conflict in three possible directions.
First, there is an increased risk of a regionalisation of the conflict in the Middle East taking place. The ongoing war in Gaza, the attacks by the Houthis is Yemen against foreign ships crossing the Red Sea, the military exchanges in Lebanon, with the still-open competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for the domination over the Middle East are already depicting a picture of a regional conflict in the making, which could expand and deepen further.
Israel’s foreign and defense ministers Israel Katz and Yoav Gallant have given reassurances that the country does not want an all-out war, which if it occurs could involve a re-opening of the direct confrontation with Iran. But it is obvious that the longer the Gaza operation by the IDF continues, the more likely an extension of the conflict becomes, especially because such an extension would be politically expedient for PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Second, terrorist attacks in Europe have restarted. Last week, the knife attack by an ISIS member in Solingen (Germany) during a local festival, which left three people dead and several injured, re-activated the fear of there being widespread terrorist attacks, which have plagued Europe in the last few years, with France, Germany and Belgium being the most targeted countries. This also follows the use of violence by the police, in particular in Germany, against pro-Palestinian demonstrators, which is contributing to a further rise of tension.
Third, the conflict has global implications in the year of the US Presidential elections. In spite of the reassurances given by the various sides, the talks in Cairo between Israel and Hamas, with the mediation of Egypt, Qatar and the US have not yet produced not even a minimal ceasefire. This is creating tensions around the world, with rallies and occupied universities in various countries, including in the US. As we discussed in previous columns, this is radicalising public opinion and dividing countries, as well as dividing parties within countries. In the US, the Democratic Party leaders are finding it hard to maintain all the various sensitivities under the same roof and remain united ahead of the crucial November 5th vote.
In our view, this conflict will remain open until the US Presidential election is held, at which point it will become clearer what type of support Netanyahu will have for Israel’s military operations in Palestine.
