Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule

Iran’s Transition to the Post-Raisi Period Likely Means Continuation of Hardline Rule

by Giorgio Cafiero

4 June 2024

In this paper we discuss:

1. The downing of Iran’s presidential helicopter in May, and the conspiracy theories associated with that;
2. The “politics” of Raisi’s funeral, revealing the new alliances in the region;
3. Iran’s succession plans for the Presidency and the Supreme Leader position;
4. The risk of instability arising in the region during the transition period;
5. Iran’s “Neighbours first” policy, which is likely to continue; and
6. Why we believe that Teheran’s leadership will try to keep the detente with Riyad going for longer.

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