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Aug 13, 2019

Scenario Analysis: Tension Between Iran and US Likely To Continue, With Increasing Risk Of Escalation

Giorgio Cafiero

Nouriel Roubini

Brunello Rosa

by Giorgio Cafiero, Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa

14 August 2019

In this paper we discuss:

  • The latest developments in the tensions between US and Iran;
  • A scenario analysis on how the situation could evolve in coming months;
  • Under what conditions a war could erupt between US and Iran; and
  • The implications for oil prices of the various scenarios.

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