Assessing the 2026 Iran Conflict: Military Developments, GCC Risks, and Economic Consequences

In this paper, we discuss:

• The escalation of the U.S.–Israel war with Iran and its expanding regional scope;
• Iran’s strategy of deterrence through escalation and cost imposition on the U.S. and its allies;
• Disruptions to global energy markets, particularly through constraints in the Strait of Hormuz;
• Rising risks to Gulf countries’ critical infrastructure and regional stability;
• The broader global economic and geopolitical consequences, including risks to growth, trade, and energy security;

Download PDF: Iran Conflict – March 2026