Iran at a Breaking Point: From Economic Crisisto Nuclear Negotiations

In this paper, we discuss:

• Iran’s most severe crackdown since 1979, driven by economic collapse, legitimacy crisis, and mass protests met with lethal force and blackouts;
• Large-scale diaspora mobilisation and explicit regime-change demands, highlighting both global solidarity and opposition fragmentation;
• A dual U.S. approach of sanctions, military signalling, and renewed nuclear diplomacy amid rising regional tensions;
• Omani-mediated nuclear talks constrained by deep disagreements over scope;
• Parallel IRGC drills in the Strait of Hormuz underscoring the fragile balance between negotiation and escalation.

Download PDF: Iran – February 2026