Oil, Conflict, and the Risk of Renewed Global Inflation

In this paper, we discuss:

• The risk of renewed global inflation driven by geopolitical tensions and energy market disruptions;
• The impact of the Iran conflict on oil and gas prices, increasing volatility and supply risks;
• How rising energy costs feed into broader inflation through production and transport channels;
• Shifting market expectations, with reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts and potential for tighter policy;
• The growing policy trade-off for central banks between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

Download PDF: Inflation – April 2026