By Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, Brunello Rosa, Pablo Gallego Cuervo, Damiano Terziotti
30 August 2018
In this paper we discuss:
The global context and risks that could lead to a global recession in coming years;
The specific risks to the Eurozone’s survival: what reforms would be needed for the EZ to integrate more and why the rise of populist parties make them difficult to implement;
A scenario analysis on how a EZ break-up could occur;
The economic impact and market implications of a EZ break-up; and
The hedging strategies that could implemented to protect investors’ portfolios in case of a EZ break-up.
