On Saturday, the “Islamic Resistance Movement” Hamas, the political and paramilitary Palestinian organisation based in the Gaza strip, launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel, with thousands of rockets fired at several Israeli cities, and incursions by its militias into the Israeli territory via land, sea, and sky with the use of paragliders. Hundreds of victims and injured people can already be counted, together with dozens of hostages being taken.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, said immediately after the attack that Israel was “at war”, and this wasn’t simply an “operation” by the Palestinian organisation. He later added that “Israel should prepare for a long and difficult war.” As a result, the retaliation by Israel started immediately; as press reports suggest, at least 300 people have been killed, more than 2,000 wounded and 100 taken hostage in the Gaza strip during Israel’s retaliation.
This attack occurred during Shabbat, the weekly day of rest for Jewish people, and during the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah, which marks the completion of the annual reading of this section of the Bible. Additionally, and perhaps more significantly, the attack occurred on the 50thanniversary of the Yom Kippur War of 1973, when Israeli troops were also caught by surprise by the military operation initiated by the surrounding Arab countries.
In particular, this attack occurs at a time during which talks were gathering pace for a possible agreement between Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel, which would have led to the beginning of formal diplomatic relationships between Saudi Arabia and Israel. As we discussed in a recent column, the potential agreement could have led to the stabilisation of the region for decades, yet was ridden with obstacles. Saudi Arabia would have asked for a formal recognition of the Palestinian institutions, to further progress towards the “two states” solution.
What are the implications of this attack? First, the Saudi-Israeli-US deal will be much more difficult to be achieved, as Israel is “at war” with the state-like organisation that would benefit from a formal recognition. As has always occurred in previous occasions, every time there is the chance of a détente between Israel and Palestine, the extreme factions of either side carry out attacks that block the rapprochement process. Hamas said that Iran gave support for the organisation of the strike, and in effect Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed organisation in Lebanon, has launched rockets in the North of Israel. It is possible that Iran is opposed to the potential Saudi-Israeli-US deal, from which it would be excluded.
Secondly, the legitimacy of PM Netanyahu will increase, as always happens during crisis periods, and particularly during wars, when populations are scared and seek protection from the incumbent government, whatever its colour. This happens at the time in which Netanyahu’s popularity was at its lowest point, given the corruption charges against him and the widespread protests against his ill-conceived reform of the judiciary.
True, his government will be widely criticized for the lack of intelligence that was needed to pre-empt the attack, which has clearly been planned for months, and which was timed for the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. But Netanyahu could actually seize the chance of ditching his right-wing parliamentary allies, which have allowed the birth of the most-rightwing government in Israeli history. He could instead form a national unity government that many of his political opponents, starting from Yair Lapid, would likely support. This would probably allow him to remain in power for longer than he could with the current coalition.
One could even hope that such a national unity government may actually be the one that will be able to negotiate the deal with Saudi Arabia and the US, which clearly now is more needed than ever. But as mentioned above, the war between Israel (led by whatever government) and Hamas makes it even harder to achieve any such deal.
