The Unravelling of the GCC Order: Security, Finance and Energy

In this paper, we discuss:

• The growing fragmentation of the GCC order, as the war exposes the limits of the Gulf’s security and economic model;
• The erosion of confidence in U.S. security guarantees and the rise of alternative hedging strategies involving China and Pakistan;
• The increasing politicisation of finance and currency arrangements, including RMB oil settlement and financial leverage as statecraft;
• Deepening divergence within the Gulf, particularly between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over oil policy and regional strategy;
• The securitisation of technology and AI infrastructure, with data centres and digital assets becoming part of the geopolitical battlespace.

Download PDF: GCC – May 2026