Fracture or Reset? The 2025 Federal Election and Canada’s Strategic Posture

Evaluating Canada’s Political Realignment in the Face of Internal and External Forces

By Nathan Alli

23rd April 2025

In this paper we discuss:

• The leadership transitions and the state of play in Canadian politics. 
• Key issues shaping the election debate; 
• The electoral geography and the key battlegrounds;
• Voter demographics and turnout scenarios; 
• The final outcome scenarios, which foresee a majority or minority Liberal government as base case. 

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Download PDF: Canada April 2025

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