Preview: Fed To Resume Easing, as Labour Market Downside Risks Outpace Inflation Upside Risks

by Nouriel Roubini, Brunello Rosa and Nato Balavadze

In this paper, we discuss:

• Our latest assessment of the US economy, which remains resilient in spite of the headwinds; 
• The 25-bps cut we expect in September, and the other ones we expect this year and next;
• The revision to the growth and inflation outlook, and to the SEP dots; and
• The market reaction, which may be adverse if the Fed will not explicitly commit to the three cuts the market is expecting. 

Download PDF: Fed Preview September 2025