In this paper, we discuss:
• The Fed is expected to remain on hold, adopting a cautious, data-dependent stance;
• The Iran war is pushing inflation higher via oil prices while weakening growth;
• Rate cuts are being delayed, with limited easing expected in 2026;
• Policy uncertainty is rising, including uncertainty around Fed leadership;
• Weakening macroeconomic conditions support a prolonged pause in policy.
Download PDF: Fed Preview – March 2026
